Sabres’ goaltending prospects face challenging development curve

September 9, 2020

As Seth Appert made the six-hour trek from his home in Michigan to Rochester recently, the Amerks’ new coach called many of his prospective players to introduce himself and check in during a long, unusual offseason.

Appert, now a central figure in the Buffalo Sabres’ new plan to develop prospects in the American Hockey League, also wanted to begin the long process of establishing trust, especially with a position group that holds particular importance to the organization: goaltending.

Appert placed calls to top prospect Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Finland and Jonas Johansson in Sweden, both of whom are expected to be on Rochester’s roster in 2020-21. Luukkonen has been tabbed one of the best drafted goaltending prospects in the National Hockey League, while Johansson appeared in six games with the Sabres last season and will likely be the organization’s No. 3 goaltender.

“I think as a head coach I found our goaltenders (in the past had) a high level of comfort because there’s a relationship and an understanding,” said Appert, a former collegiate goalie with a strong track record coaching the position. “Usually with goalies comfort leads to success.”

The position has been a black hole for the organization over the past six seasons. Since Ryan Miller was traded to St. Louis on Feb. 28, 2014, the Sabres have used 14 goalies, none of whom produced consistent results, while allowing the second-most goals in the NHL and registering the fewest points as a team during that span.

Among the 14 goalies drafted by the Sabres since Miller joined the organization in 1999, only two other than Miller have played more than 19 games in the NHL: Jhonas Enroth and Linus Ullmark.

Now, the Sabres finally have three promising prospects in the pipeline – Johansson, Luukkonen and Erik Portillo, the latter two of whom were drafted by former general manager Jason Botterill – but the next step is developing them into NHL-caliber goaltenders, a delicate process that requires time, coaching and smart decision-making.

“If we build that relationship and if we can build trust, then they can come to me when things are awry, or I can call them when I see things I don’t think should be happening,” said Appert. “It starts with picking the right guys. Well, the Sabres have done a great job of that. These two guys have a massive ceiling and I’m excited to help them get there.”

 

Coaching

Patience is the overarching theme with goaltending development around the NHL. The patience to wait possibly several years for a prospect to develop, the patience to not rush the goaltender to the AHL, or worse, the NHL, and the patience to recognize that the prospect is going to fail from time to time.

The process requires the presence of a strong development coach, said Corey Hirsch, who worked as an NHL goalie coach with the Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues from 2009 to 2014.

A development coach works with prospects in the AHL, the ECHL and drafted goalies who are competing in junior or professional leagues around the world. In addition to on- and off-ice position-specific technical instruction, the coach helps the young goalie navigate the mental aspect of the position and is typically tasked with determining how many games the prospect should play in a season.

Seamus Kotyk, formerly an amateur scout, was elevated to Sabres’ goalie development coach ahead of the 2017-18 season. He helped prepare current starter Linus Ullmark for a full-time NHL role, worked closely with Luukkonen during a breakout 2018-19 and recovery from double-hip surgery, and guided Portillo, a third-round pick in 2019, to United States Hockey League goaltender of the year honors this season. Johansson was also named an AHL all-star during his first full season with Rochester.

“Goalie coaches don’t get the respect they deserve,” said Hirsch. “I’m not sure if some teams really know the difference between a good goalie coach and someone who is somebody’s buddy. Teams are doing a better job with it now, but it plays such an important role in a young guy’s development. … You need someone who can really talk to these kids and relate to them and get their trust.”

Teams began to hire goalie development coaches over the past 15-20 years and coaching staffs now have experienced people working with their NHL goalies. Last August, the Sabres hired Mike Bales, who coached the Pittsburgh Penguins’ goalies to back-to-back Stanley Cups. Development doesn’t stop once the goalie reaches the NHL, as illustrated by Ullmark’s significant improvement under Bales in 2019-20.

The challenge, though, is developing trust with a goalie and knowing how to work with each athlete differently. The position has long been known for having eccentric personalities and a coach must adjust his or her teaching style to help the athlete improve.

“It’s something where I think I’m good at in my job, and what a good goalie coach should be, is the buffer,” said former Los Angeles Kings development coach Dusty Imoo, who has worked with Cal Peterasen, Jack Campbell and Vezina Trophy finalist Connor Hellebuyck, among others. “I know the feeling that the heat is on and the pressure is on. … Everybody has terrible nights. If you have a coach who really doesn’t waver win or loss, and keeps them on track, it can really help. The losing and the playing bad is part of development. It’s part of learning your position and how to cope.”

The mental side of the position, Imoo said, is what separates average goalies from those who stick in the NHL. It’s a quality that Botterill wanted when he was evaluating his first draft as Sabres general manager in 2017.

Though Luukkonen had a poor showing at the IIHF World Junior Championship in 2017-18, Botterill expressed confidence the teenager would rebound in a big way. One year later, Luukkonen led Finland to a gold medal in one of the more impressive goaltending performances the tournament has seen in some time. Teams are searching for a goalie who is stoic in the face of chaos because composure is necessary in big games, specifically the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Those qualities are vetted throughout the pre-draft process, and development coaches keep a watchful eye on how goalies are handling the ups and downs of a season.

“I would say that is the key,” Imoo said of composure. “There isn’t one thing that you can say that if this kid has this then he’ll play in the NHL. You need to be able to play the game and all these things, but the mental aspect and dealing with all the outside noise that comes with the territory of being a pro goalie will definitely separate a ton of goalies. Lots of guys do really well in the American league, get their shot and can never quite hold their own on a consistent level up top. Lots of times it’s not because they’re not good enough. I know lots of goalies who aren’t nearly as good skillwise who do well in the NHL.”

 

Getting games

Though fans are expressing hope that Luukkonen can take over the Sabres’ net as soon as 2021, history tell us he may need more time to develop. The 30 NHL goalies to appear in at least 35 regular-season games in 2019-20 averaged 99 games in the minor leagues before they stuck at the highest level.

Jordan Binnington, who led St. Louis to the franchise’s first Stanley Cup last June, needed 204 games between the AHL and ECHL. Chicago Blackhawks starter Corey Crawford, a two-time Stanley Cup champion, played 255 games in the minors. Anton Khudobin, who has started for the Dallas Stars in the playoffs, spent 260 games there.

Hirsch theorized that goalies need between 120 to 150 games in the minors, not counting time in juniors. Imoo, meanwhile, explained that he measures NHL readiness by how goalies respond to tough losses and their ability to adapt to the team environment.

“I looked at the bulk of work that’s happening and seeing their path and how they’re doing through the bad times and good times,” Imoo said. “How they are developing as people, as teammates and some move way faster than others. Some are ready skillwise, like totally could play in the NHL but aren’t quite ready as far as the mental aspect of their game. And then that guy needs more games.”

While NHL teams have been practicing less in recent years, the AHL still plays most of its games on the weekend, providing goalies with ample time to work with the development coach multiple times per week. But Hirsch said nothing replicates game experience in the minors, where goalies can make mistakes without fear of being pulled.

“You can practice in your crease and do all your drills, but until you see a certain situation over and over again, that’s when you really become a good goalie,” said Hirsch.

Luukkonen, a second-round draft pick in 2017, has appeared in only 34 games between Rochester and Cincinnati, though he’s had success at the international level and was named the Ontario Hockey League’s most valuable player in 2019. Last season, Luukkonen’s first post-surgery, the Sabres’ development staff determined that approximately 40 games is an ideal number for Luukkonen to play during his trek through the minors.

Portillo, a third-round pick in 2019, might spend four seasons at the University of Michigan before he joins the Sabres. Rushing a prospect is a risk the Sabres have taken in the past. When Robin Lehner was injured in 2015, former general manager Tim Murray decided to promote Ullmark, despite the latter undergoing hip surgery only six months earlier.

Ullmark recorded an impressive .916 save percentage in 20 games before he was returned to Rochester, but Botterill showed a more conservative approach with goaltenders.

“It’s tricky because it takes patience,” said Martin Biron, a former NHL goalie and current MSG analyst. “In a league now where parity is so close and the competitive level is so high, a lot of teams don’t have the patience. The Sabres were patient with Linus and I think that was probably the biggest takeaway from his development. They’re being patient with UPL. … I still think there is a year or two of development with him, but they’ve been patient with him and that’s the key.”

 

‘For the world to see’

New Sabres General Manager Kevyn Adams has yet to publicly comment on his goaltending situation.

Ullmark, a 27-year-old pending restricted free agent, is the projected starter for 2020-21. Carter Hutton, who was signed by Buffalo following a successful stint as a backup in St. Louis, is entering the final year of his contract and a vision issue hindered his performance last season.

The Sabres will likely be among the teams rumored to explore what’s expected to be a deep goaltending market this offseason. Though Adams is equipped with approximately $34.4 million in salary-cap space, would he be willing to hand significant money to an older goaltender when it’s the one strong position in his prospect pipeline?

It became a strength after Botterill took a gamble by drafting Luukkonen with his second pick in 2017, a bold move considering general managers usually wait until the later rounds. 

“If you draft a player in the first round and he ends up playing on your third or fourth line, it’s not a disaster,” former NHL General Manager Rick Dudley said. “He’s still in the NHL. You don’t want that. Most people you pick in the first round should play in your top six or your top four, but that won’t always happen. If a goaltender doesn’t make it and he ends up being the third goaltender in your organization or even a backup and you drafted him high, it’s there for the whole world to see.”

And now the pressure is on the Sabres’ new hockey operations staff, including Kotyk and director of player development Matt Ellis, to help the three goaltending prospects realize their potential.

“There are other positions in sports that are very, very difficult,” Dudley said, “but being a goaltender in hockey, there can’t be a position that is more demanding from a pressure standpoint.”

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